by Dominic Carroll, Cork Neutrality League
1.
We’re not joining NATO.
It is now suggested that the government had NEVER contemplated NATO membership, and that defenders of neutrality are, inexplicably, crying “Wolf”.
Yet government politicians have repeatedly expressed enthusiasm for, at the very least, increased cooperation with NATO (stealth membership). In June 2022, Micheál Martin said Ireland does not need a referendum to join NATO. How else was this to be interpreted other than that the government was giving serious consideration to joining?
It is logical, then, that defenders of neutrality continue to take the rush/drift towards NATO seriously (in 2022 a rush, in 2023 a drift).
2.
Government assurances in advance of the forum (actually, admissions of defeat) regarding neutrality and NATO should have mollified supporters of neutrality, it is suggested. Numerous politicians and commentators have sought to portray/deride our continued objections and protests as illogical.
However, the objection to the forum remained valid. It provided a platform for a preponderance of securocrats and academics intent on extolling the benefits of NATO, with little formal opposition (i.e. platform speakers).
The forum was clearly designed to “deliver” for the government. Despite objections at the highest level (the presidency), the programme and selection of speakers remained unaltered.
Opposition to the forum remained valid.
3.
The forum was not the beginning and end of the debate.
The debate is being conducted across the media, within academia, among politicians and government departments (in Ireland, the EU, the US, etc.), among the public and (for four days only) in and around the forum.
Numerous commentators, politicians and academics (not only from Ireland) have been egging Ireland on towards NATO membership. The Irish Times has been central to the debate, with an obvious bias in favour of anti-neutrality/pro-NATO contributors – e.g. Gay Mitchell was afforded numerous opportunities to persuade the readership of the Irish Times that Ireland should join NATO.
Prominent commentators in numerous other leading publications have chided Ireland for failing to step up militarily (e.g. “Ireland is Europe’s weakest link” and “Irish neutrality – complacent at the best of times – has now become untenable, and perhaps its politicians will finally resolve to do something about it”).
The neutrality movement was addressing ALL opponents of Irish neutrality, wherever they may be, when opposing the forum.
4.
Despite this, the government has been forced to declare/concede that we are NOT joining NATO. (For now.) And that we will continue to be neutral. (Until we cease to be neutral.)
It is only logical that these government blandishments regarding neutrality and NATO (while they await developments in their favour) should be scorned.
5.
Government intentions with regard to Nato and neutrality have been thwarted by a recalcitrant public (61%), by the activities and discourse of pro-neutrality groups, by pro-neutrality scholarly discourse, and by opposition in the Oireachtas, by MEPs and by President Michael D. Higgins.
6.
We can’t be sure if Micheál Martin continues to hanker after NATO membership; perhaps it was just a dalliance in the heat of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (under pressure from EU/NATO securocrats), and perhaps he now accepts – all things considered – that it’s not on (apparently, many of his backbenchers are also of this view). But he is undoubtedly determined to do something about the Triple Lock and is fully committed to increased integration into EU defence arrangements. He is clearly no enthusiast for neutrality.
7.
Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael clearly yearn for eventual NATO membership. This, they hope, can be achieved through salami tactics: first, tackle the Triple Lock; next – well, that depends – it might take years. Or perhaps the escalation of the war in Ukraine will suddenly make it seem like the sensible option to a majority of people.
8.
As to the forum, while it may not have backfired, exactly, it could be said to have misfired (because of the opposition to it). Dame Louise Richardson is still certain to deliver on the Triple Lock, and pro-neutrality campaign groups must now step up efforts to defend it. But if Dame Richardson is not inclined – perhaps, no longer inclined – to recommend the abandonment of neutrality and for Ireland to join NATO, the forum may fairly be judged a partial failure for the government. Equally, the pro-neutrality movement may fairly claim a considerable degree of success in undermining the forum.
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The email of Cork Neutrality League is corkneutralityleague@gmail.com and they have social media accounts as follows: Instagram www.instagram.com/corkneutralityleague Facebook www.facebook.com/CorkLeague Twitter twitter.com/Cork_CNL_SNOW (S’no joke, SNOW stands for Stay Neutral Oppose War).