Larry Speight brings us his monthly column –
As the immediate has a profound effect on our lives it is not surprising that we on these islands are keen weather watchers and listen to weather forecasts throughout the day so that we can prepare for what is to come. Prolonged heavy rain might mean flooded roads requiring us to take detours to get to our destination and a storm might mean fallen electricity poles resulting in the loss of electricity to our homes. Knowing about what weather to expect incentivises us to prepare for it so that when it arrives we suffer less than we otherwise would have.
As a rule, we like to know about things in advance of them happening so that we can make the appropriate preparations, a redundancy for example. Under the radar of everyday life there is an industry that prepares us for death through encouraging us to draw up a will, write post-death letters to our loved ones and make provision for our funeral. As soon as young people get their first job they are encouraged to cast their minds 50-years into the future and save for their retirement.
The motto of the boy and girl scouts is Be Prepared.
Given humankind’s long history of living within set boundaries where our wellbeing was largely determined by local events it is not surprising that we in Ireland are inclined to frame issues in terms of the local. Until a few decades ago there were sound grounds for this, especially when much of our food was sourced locally. However, living as we do today in an exceedingly complex economy what happens globally is often more important that what happens locally. The price of oil is a case in point. A major disruption to the oil market could, within a matter of hours, raise the price of heating oil beyond most peoples’ means.
It is the global dimension to our lives that makes the annual two-weeks of negotiations on limiting global warming emissions under the auspices of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP) so important. The most recent one, COP 30, took place in Belem, Brazil this November.
Although the outcome was disappointing in that the petrostates along with other countries blocked reference in the final text to the core issue of transition away from fossil fuels. Agreements were reached on ecological literacy, climate-resilient health systems, expanded early-warning systems, climate justice and harmonising global carbon accounting standards.
The COP held in Paris in 2015 produced what is thought to be the most important outcome of all the COPs which is the agreement to limit global warming to 20 C with a focus on limiting the rise to 1.50 C as against pre-industrial levels. Today the global average temperature stands at 1.3OC and is on course to warm to 2.60 C by the end of the century.
There is almost near consensus among climatologists that to breach the 1.50 C limit will be catastrophic for life on Earth. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, is quoted in the Guardian, 13 November 2025, as saying that: “A world at 2.6C means global disaster … (it) means the end of agriculture in the UK and across Europe, drought and monsoon failure in Asia and Africa, lethal heat and humanity.”
A temperature of 2.6C would lead to the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which helps ensure that we on these islands enjoy a mild climate. It would also lead to in an increase in the melt rate of ice sheets resulting in a rise in sea levels displacing people in coastal towns and cities around the world including Dublin, Belfast, London, New York and Ho Chi Minh City. It would turn rainforests, which are one of the Earth’s major sinks for CO2, into savannah. Mosquito borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and yellow fever, which are common in the tropics, would become more widespread.
What many will find particularly upsetting is that these likely outcomes are expected to occur within the life-span of children born in recent years who will live the nightmare of a chaotic world in which most of what we take for granted will cease to exist. This includes food variety and availability, water quality, electricity supply and convenient, comfortable transport.
One of the consequences of living in a world whose ecosphere is collapsing is that supply networks collapse with it. As an island people some might think that we have a propensity for economic self-sufficiency and should not be unduly worried about distant economic, ecological and political events. This view is mistaken.
Agriculture is an illustrative example. In spite of our island having mild weather and good soil 83 % of the fruit and vegetables we eat and 80% of the animal fed we use is imported. The latter comes from a variety of countries including Argentina, the EU, Brazil and the USA. When it comes to manufactured goods comparatively few are produced on either side of the border.
In the light of the ecological and economic catastrophe that will arise out of our collective mismanagement of our relationship with the rest of nature, which the former US vice-president Al Gore described at COP 30 as “literally insane”, what are we doing in terms of preparation? More to the point, what are we doing to avoid the predicted catastrophe?
If driving fast on a winding road we have the power to prevent a terrible collision by slowing down and driving with care. We don’t need to have a collision to learn a lesson about driving too fast. Likewise with the consequences of our consumer lifestyle which is eliminating biodiversity and raising the global temperature to a level that will make life unbearable.
While we should prepare for the collapse of the ecosphere and what this will mean in terms of meeting our everyday needs we should at the same time live in a more ecologically sensitive way whilst campaigning for systemic change underpinned by compassion.